What Has Gone Wrong for New Zealand’s Juvenile Trotters?

When the official birthdate for New Zealand Standardbreds shifted from 1 August to 1 January for the 2022 crop, the expectation across much of the industry was that juvenile racing — and in particular, juvenile trotters — would be among the biggest beneficiaries.

The change gave them an additional half-year to grow and mature, several major age-group races moved out of the traditional March–June window, and a 2YO bonus was introduced to help incentivise early participation. On paper, it should have been a positive reset.

Since 1 August, eighteen 2YO trots have been programmed nationally. The largest field attracted nine starters, and that was in the lowest-stakes race of the set. A Group 3 race proceeded with just three runners. With the removal of the Aces and the Jewels, this year’s only Group One opportunity for juvenile trotters was the Sires Stakes 2YO Championship. Next season, however, will include two Group One races — including the strengthened Young Guns Final in Auckland rising to $100,000, which will serve as a valuable litmus test for whether earlier, meaningful targets can draw out precocious talent, particularly from the South Island.

For the majority of the juvenile trotting population — the non-sales, non-sweepstake homebreds — meaningful early-season opportunities have become increasingly scarce. Most 2YO trots struggle to attract six starters. This contrasts sharply with years when a June 2YO Ruby could draw fourteen runners and build momentum for the entire crop.

What makes the participation decline particularly concerning is that it is not tied to breeding activity. Trotting mare services have been remarkably stable for two decades, typically between six hundred and six hundred and fifty. Recent foal crops came off 630, 640, 649, 622 and 639 trotting services — numbers that should comfortably support a much stronger juvenile racing footprint.

Yet starters are not appearing. In 2021 and 2022, more than sixty juvenile trotters raced. That fell to 56 in 2023, 57 in 2024, and sits at just 44 this season (to 10 December). Total starts have almost halved over the same period.

The horses are being bred. They are being broken in. They are reaching stables. They are simply not being presented to race.

Across dozens of conversations with trainers, several consistent themes emerge:
• irregular programming and a lack of rhythm
• the disappearance of penalty-free non-totes
• the perceived or assumed risk that a programmed early-season race may not stand up, discouraging nominations
• the removal of the long-standing practice of 2YO trotters entering races once mobile-cleared, which previously encouraged earlier education and participation

Qualification times are not new, and there is no suggestion they should not exist. However, the loss of mobile-clearance entry points has had a more pronounced impact on 2YO trotters because of natural gait variability at two. Even a small number of additional starters earning real stakes — rather than trialling — would contribute positively to turnover and industry revenue.

We also cannot ignore the effect elite individuals can have. The indomitable Duchess Maria (Father Patrick) no doubt persuaded several connections to turn their horses out before her injury curtailed her season. Pacing, with greater depth, generally absorbs such outliers more easily than trotting.

Despite representing 31% of next season’s juvenile foal crop, 2YO trotters will race for just 23% of the available stakes prior to the end of May.

Pacing juveniles, by comparison, will have almost four times as many early-season race opportunities — 32 pacing races versus just 9 for trotters.

Pacing fillies will have more than $430,000 on offer in the first half of next year; trotting fillies have none. We no longer have a Group One race for trotting fillies against their own sex — something the connections of Petite Amour will feel acutely after she gallantly chased the benchmark 2YO colt of 2025 home in her grand final.

Pacing juvenile races begin in late January. Trotting juvenile races do not begin until late March.

All of this shapes perceptions of opportunity and return on investment at a time when owners are paying identical training fees regardless of gait.

Meaningful, regular programming — signalled in a timely, transparent manner — can materially influence trainer behaviour. When trainers know what is coming, and when, they prepare for it. When they are unsure, they delay or redirect their focus. At present, that uncertainty disproportionately affects trotters.

It is my strong view that trotting advocacy has historically been under-represented at decision-making levels. This is not a criticism, but context for why I advocate strongly now. The issues facing the gait are systemic, long-standing, and solvable — but only if acknowledged early enough to influence meaningful change.

I should also declare a vested interest. I have seven trotters on the ground who are two-years-old or younger, and I breed from three trotting mares and one pacing mare. The issues outlined here materially affect horses in which breeders like myself have made significant investment.

That investment has underpinned a transformation in our trotting breed. The move from dual-gaited stallions to pure trotting sires dramatically improved the natural gait, balance and professionalism of New Zealand trotters. This progress was driven by substantial investment from breeders and from operations such as Yabby Dam Farms, Duncan McPherson and Breckon Farms.

But this progress is at risk. The mare pool is shrinking. Stallions are competing for roughly five hundred bookings. Shuttling stallions Down Under is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. Decisions made in 2025 will not affect juvenile racing until 2029. Meanwhile, the 2027 and 2028 crops are projected to have around seventy-five fewer horses than any crop of the last fifteen years. This may worsen before it improves.

As the industry adjusts to the removal of the Entain Bonus, it is important to acknowledge that one lever capable of influencing early-season appearances has already been lost. Its absence also opens the door to considering the reintroduction of penalty-free non-totes, which historically encouraged early racing, created exposed form, assisted field formation, and offered a low-cost, high-impact stimulus to the juvenile pool.

Trainers are not demanding sweeping change. At the very least, they would like to see considerations such as a regular weekly 2YO trot, the return of $2,000 penalty-free non-totes, more flexible early-education pathways, and the retention of meaningful age-group targets like Group One or Group Two races. These are pragmatic, complementary ideas that align with the broader 2YO review already underway.

It is equally important that trainers of both gaits feel empowered to use the channels available to them — the Trainer & Driver Association, direct HRNZ engagement, and formal consultation processes — to voice concerns, ideas and suggestions regarding juvenile programming and all facets of scheduling. Breeders and owners should likewise feed their perspectives through their kindred bodies so that decision-makers receive a complete and well-rounded picture.

This is not a criticism of any organisation. It is simply recognition that we are at a pivotal moment. With trotting mare bookings slipping below five hundred for the first time in nearly two decades, the decisions made now will determine whether the gait contracts or grows, whether breeders feel supported or exposed, and whether juvenile trotters remain an integral part of New Zealand harness racing.

The question is what future we want.

Do we focus our resources solely on older horses?
Or do we rebuild and strengthen the juvenile programme so the entire pipeline remains healthy?

NZSBA remains committed to contributing positively to this process, and to advocating for a sustainable structure that allows our juvenile trotters — and the trotting breed as a whole — to thrive.